We’re not alone in seeing a blue wave on the horizon. The New Year brings with it a deluge of stories about the state of the election 11 months out, and we’ve never felt more confident.
Take Stuart Rothenberg, the well-known non-partisan political analyst. He penned an article in Roll Call, “House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might”, which reminds us what happened during the 2006 blue wave election. In eight races, an incumbent Republican won between 59%-67% of the vote in 2004 only to lose reelection in 2006! By comparison, only two of the 14 Congressional Republicans in California won reelection in 2016 by more than 67%, and one of them is the thoroughly compromised Devin Nunes.
“This year, the focus has been on 23 House Republicans sitting in districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016,” he writes. “That’s certainly a good place to start, but it’s a bad place to stop, especially in an electoral wave.”
The Wall Street Journal also just published a must-read analysis of the House dynamics here: “California Poses Problem for GOP as 2018 Dawns: Party policies ranging from taxes to immigration cast a shadow over midterm prospects.”
It identifies four key reasons Democrats in California will compete in the 14 Republican-held districts:
- GOP Tax Hike: “The recently passed tax-cut bill, with its limits on deductibility of state and local taxes and mortgage interest, seemed almost designed to strike at high-tax states with pricey real estate such as California.”
- Scapegoating Immigrants: “President Donald Trump’s immigration policies are widely unpopular in a state with a large population of Hispanics and Asian-Americans.”
- Climate Change Denialism: “The president’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accords, and his tendency to dismiss fears of global warming, cut against the grain in California, home of some of the country’s most environmentally attuned citizens.”
- Health Care Sabotage: “Republican efforts to undo Obamacare also are an irritant in a state that has tended to strongly support the law.”
Unfortunately, all 14 California Republicans are a rubber stamp for Trump’s destructive agenda, and they remain silent as his daily unhinged behavior brings shame and chaos to America’s doorstep. They are the problem, and we need to vote them out!